When Brock Lesnar landed a surprise submission victory over Shane Carwin in the second round last night, UFC 2010‘s unofficial prediction record for UFC main events dropped to 0-3. On the surface it’s no big deal, they’re just predictions made by a video game after all, but is there something more at work here?

UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans
UFC 114 was headlined by feuding The Ultimate Fighter 10 coaches Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and “Sugar” Rashad Evans. We ran a simulation for this fight just four days after this year’s edition of UFC Undisputed hit stores. The simulation had Rampage knocking out Rashad in the first round after a vicious elbow from full mount. Later that night however, Rashad earned a unanimous decision win with his complete control over a seemingly disinterested Rampage. There was a moment where Rampage did land a big shot that rocked Rashad to the mat, but nonetheless it was an early 0-1 in the books for UFC 2010.

UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin
Similar to UFC 114, 115′s main event featured The Ultimate Fighter 11 coaches Chuck “Iceman” Liddell and Rich “Ace” Franklin. Liddell was initially supposed to meet Tito Ortiz yet again, but Ortiz withdrew due to injury leading to Franklin replacing him for both The Ultimate Fighter and for the follow-up bout between coaches. Before the fight, the UFC promoted a simulation of its video game where Liddell grounded and pounded Franklin for a knockout victory. In reality, the fight between these two MMA legends did end by knockout, but it was Franklin who ended up putting Liddell down with a brutal right hand in the first round. With Liddell’s loss, UFC 2010 predictions quickly fell to 0-2.

UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin
With this fight so fresh in memory, going over the background is not necessary… we all know how big of a fight it was. Prior to last night’s showdown between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, over a span of many simulations UFC 2010 predicted Carwin would see his hand raised at UFC 116 after a second round knockout. Clearly that did not turn out to be the case. The game did correctly assess Carwin’s incredible power but that was just not enough as Lesnar survived the onslaught of fists in round one and took advantage of a heavily gassed (or injured?) Carwin in the second. Lesnar did the unthinkable and passed on a full mount to go for a risky triangle from Carwin’s side, and it paid off in a big way. UFC 2010 was so very close to getting this prediction right as the fight could have easily and justifiably been stopped had the referee or circumstances been different. But a closer look reveals Lesnar’s massive hands and forearms shielded many of the blows from making direct contact, preventing an early TKO stoppage. As Carwin would tell you himself, coming close does not matter and UFC 2010 struck out at 0-3.

While obviously these prediction results are not official nor scientific in the least, it could be an indicator that the video game is not correctly portraying MMA and some of its finest athletes. Is UFC 2010 game design at fault? Is it inaccurate fighter ratings? Or is it just the nature of a sport where “anything can happen?”

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